Scientists from the forest Institute named after Vladimir Sukachyov of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences showed that in 2080, global warming will make Siberia attractive place to live. To the report of scientists, done in Chiba (Japan) at the joint conference of Japanese and American geophysical unions, drew the second.
"According to the projections of CMIP5 models to 2080 years Siberia will be characterized by more mild and moderate climates with less permafrost coverage... Predictable temperate climate and a doubling of crop production can attract people to migration to Siberia during this century," say the authors.
As the object for the study, researchers chose the climate of Central Siberia is a geographical region of Russia, which, according to the study, is between 85-105 degrees East longitude and 51-75 degrees North latitude, including the Krasnoyarsk territory, republics of Khakassia and Tyva. To predict the experts used ten global climate models project CMIP5 (The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project).
The authors showed that by 2080, the temperature in the middle of winter in Central Siberia will rise by 9.1 degrees Celsius, and summer — 5.7 degrees, the annual precipitation will increase by 60-140 mm. The ecological potential of the landscape that determines its suitability for a person, for the greater part of Central Siberia will be reduced by 1-2 (varies from scale 1 to 7, where 1 has the highest potential), and the population density will increase three times.
Climate data for 1960-1990 years from one hundred meteorological stations analyzed by scientists have shown that modern climate is generally unfavorable for human habitation in Central Siberia, especially in the permafrost zone. Only some land in the steppe zone, are free from permafrost, currently convenient for the person.
Authors and experts agree that the migration of people to Siberia can prevent socio-economic factors, in particular, the underdeveloped infrastructure of the region, as well as waterlogging of the area. The last factor leads to the release of methane into atmosphere and, consequently, warming. An increase in temperature, in its turn, will provoke the active spread of forests, which, in turn, absorb carbon and thereby slow down the warming.
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