Russia's economy stood at the level of 2015, GDP growth will oscillate at the minimum values, and the standard of living will decline. About it in conversation with "Roo" said head of the Department of international capital markets, Institute of world economy and international relations (IMEMO), RAS Yakov Mirkin.
"My prediction: in the near future — the economy is in the swamp, the buffeting around zero waiting for the next black swans," said Mirkin. So the expert commented on the statement of the Ministry, according to which GDP growth will start at the end of this year.
Russia's economy remains dependent on external factors, the expert said. "Main "leash" is still the dollar and commodity prices, as well as the ability to maintain the volume of production of raw materials," said Mirkin.
The ruble is currently overvalued. "If he will remain at the current level of 62 and 63 rubles per dollar, it will become a brake on the economy, especially in the sphere of public Finance", — said the representative of IMEMO.
Economic development is constrained by high taxes, administrative costs and very high interest rates, he said. Policy of the Central Bank, according to Mirkin, has led to more expensive loans. "From this suffering, first of all, small business", — he stressed.
While there is some success in the defense industry, the agricultural sector and certain regions, but they are unlikely to give an impetus to the overall economic recovery, said the expert. "The growth in Russian agriculture has been achieved at the expense of budget subsidies, and the economy in General, the same effect can be achieved by reducing taxes and interest rates," said Mirkin.
28 Oct the Ministry of economic development published the forecast of socio-economic development of Russia in which the main priorities of economic policy in the period from 2017 to 2019 called the import substitution and improving the quality of life of Russians. The document also says that the economy will move from stagnation to recovery in the end of 2016.
20 Oct experts Ranepa in its monitoring of socio-economic position of Russia reported, the incomes of Russians in the third quarter of 2016 fell 6.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Such a reduction in welfare in the period from July to September has not been observed since 1999, they noted.
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