The dependence of the Russian economy from fluctuations in world oil prices declined. This writes the chief economist for Russia and CIS Bank of America Merrill Lynch Vladimir Osakovsky reports Rambler News Service.
According to him, evidenced by a stronger-than-expected GDP data for the year 2016. In the first quarter of 2016, real GDP declined by a modest 0.4 percent in annual terms, while the price of oil fell to $ 35 per barrel, experts say.
The constant change of the ruble exchange rate plays a stabilizing role, notes osakovskiy. "It helps to offset a large part of the volatility in oil prices by adjusting the value of net exports, while increasing the profitability of corporations", — he said.
But reducing the sensitivity of the economy to changes in oil prices have a downside — in case of growth of world quotations do not expect a significant addition to GDP. "We expect that the impact of weaker-than-expected oil this year will also be limited," — said the economist.
In April, the Bank of Russia worsened expectations for GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 compared with the fourth quarter last year from 0.6 to 0.5 percent. The forecast for the second quarter also dropped from 0.8 to 0.6 percent.
At the beginning of the year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia's economy is completely cured from the "Dutch disease" (the economy's dependence on oil). He noted that the share of oil revenues in the budget in recent years has declined in 2014, they accounted for 9.6 per cent of GDP, and in 2016 and 5.8 percent.